30% decline in Canadian permanent migration to the U.S

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Canada’s skilled migration flow to the United States has seen a significant shift over recent years, with important implications for both countries’ labor markets and immigration policies. This comprehensive report examines the latest data, revealing a 30% decline in Canadian-born permanent migration to the U.S., a rise in U.S. immigration to Canada, and the nuanced role of foreign-born Canadian citizens in this dynamic.

Decline in Permanent Migration from Canada to the U.S.

From the late 2000s to the late 2010s, the number of Canadian-born individuals obtaining permanent residency in the U.S. fell from approximately 15,600 annually to about 10,900, representing a 30% decline. This reduction has continued steadily through the COVID-19 pandemic years and into 2023, indicating a slowing but ongoing movement of Canadian talent southward. Nonetheless, the U.S. remains a significant destination for Canadian skilled workers, particularly in technology, engineering, and specialized professional fields.

Balancing Flows: Increasing U.S. Immigration to Canada

Concurrently, the inflow of U.S.-born immigrants to Canada has increased since 2017. Historically, Canada experienced a net loss in permanent resident migration to the U.S.; however, this gap has narrowed significantly. Recent years show a near balance in migration flows, with some years witnessing more U.S. residents moving to Canada than vice versa.

Migration Trends 2018-2023: Canadian-born Permanent Residents to U.S. vs U.S.-born Permanent Residents to Canada

Year	Canadian-born to U.S.	U.S.-born to Canada
2018	9,900	9,748
2019	11,390	9,857
2020	9,530	5,804
2021	9,980	10,973
2022	11,320	9,631
2023	11,870	9,677

This data shows a declining but still substantial flow of Canadians moving permanently to the U.S., with numbers hovering near 10,000–12,000 in recent years. U.S.-born immigrants to Canada have risen in some years past 10,000, reflecting near parity. The COVID-19 pandemic temporarily impacted flows but was followed by recovery and near equilibrium.

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Annual Canadian Citizens Applying for U.S. Labor Certification by Birth Status (2015, 2019, 2024)

Year	Canadian-born Citizens	Foreign-born Canadian Citizens	Total Applicants
2015	1,535	1,774	3,309
2019	~1,200	~1,550	~2,750
2024	988	1,471	2,459

The number of Canadian citizens applying for permanent U.S. labor certification has declined overall, particularly among Canadian-born citizens. Meanwhile, foreign-born Canadian citizens have increased their relative share, now comprising about 60% of applicants, indicating shifting composition and mobility patterns.

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Key Insights Supported by Data

• Migration from Canada to the U.S. experienced a 30% drop in Canadian-born permanent resident grants over the last 15 years but remains sizable.
• The U.S.-born immigrant inflow to Canada has increased since 2017, indicating balancing migration exchanges.
• Foreign-born Canadian citizens represent an increasing proportion of Canadians migrating to the U.S., highlighting the role of second-step migration.
• The skilled workforce moving south is concentrated in STEM fields, with a steady but slightly declining educational attainment profile.
• Wage offers for Canadian applicants in the U.S. remain strong (~$137,000 USD median), underscoring demand for Canadian talent.
• Policy challenges for Canada include credential recognition, housing affordability, and processing delays, which impact retention of skilled labor.

The Role of “Second-Step Migration”

A substantial portion of Canadians migrating permanently to the U.S. are foreign-born Canadian citizens who initially immigrated to Canada. Known as “second-step migration,” this phenomenon describes immigrants who relocate initially to Canada and subsequently move to the U.S. Data indicates that by 2024, foreign-born Canadians constituted about 60% of Canadian applicants for U.S. labor certification, up from 54% a decade earlier. This group often belongs to high-demand, highly skilled occupational categories, including computer science, engineering, and architecture.

Skilled Temporary Workers and Wage Trends

Employing labor certification data from the U.S. Department of Labor, the study reveals that Canadian workers applying for permanent employment-based residency in the U.S. are highly skilled with median wages around $137,000 USD. Concentrations persist in computer, mathematical, architecture, and engineering occupations, although the proportion holding advanced degrees (master’s or doctoral) has slightly decreased compared to a decade ago. This shift raises questions about the evolving quality and educational profiles of cross-border talent.

Challenges for Canada: Talent Retention and Policy Considerations

While the decline in permanent migration to the U.S. is a positive sign for Canada’s talent retention, several challenges persist. Canada continues to face competition from the larger U.S. labor market, which generally offers higher wages, broader career opportunities, and deeper innovation ecosystems, especially within tech hubs. The country’s ability to retain top foreign-born and Canadian-born skilled workers depends on its success in several areas:

• Credential Recognition: Almost 40% of skilled professionals face challenges in having their qualifications recognized, delaying their integration into the labor market.
• Housing Affordability: High costs, especially in major cities such as Toronto and Vancouver, inhibit newcomers’ ability to settle.
• Lengthy Processing Times: Applications for permanent residency and work permits often face delays, creating uncertainty for international students and temporary workers.

Policy initiatives aimed at improving these conditions, such as streamlining credential evaluations, expanding affordable housing, and reducing immigration processing backlogs, are critical to support talent retention.

Impacts on the U.S. Labor Market and Innovation

The inflow of Canadian-skilled workers bolsters key sectors in the U.S. economy, particularly within technology and engineering. The median wage offers and continued demand for Canadian talent highlight their importance to the U.S. labor market. However, the overall decline in permanent migration from Canada to the U.S. could signal tightening competition for highly skilled global workers.

Emerging Trends and Future Outlook

The COVID-19 pandemic temporarily disrupted migration flows but did not fundamentally alter long-term trends. In the post-pandemic period, Canada-U.S. skilled migration appears to be balancing out, with cross-border mobility reflecting more reciprocal movement.

Recruitment of skilled temporary workers remains robust, with many Canadians entering the U.S. labor market through temporary visas that lead to permanent residency. Foreign-born Canadians are especially mobile, and their migration trends signal the globalized and fluid nature of modern skilled migration.

For Canada, maintaining competitiveness requires enhanced focus on innovation incentives, integration supports, and immigrant-friendly policies. Strengthening pathways to permanent residency for international students and temporary workers is equally important.

Despite a noticeable decline in Canadian permanent migration to the U.S., skilled cross-border mobility remains a vital element of North American labor markets. The near balance in migration flows, alongside the prominence of foreign-born Canadian migrants, reflects complex migration dynamics shaped by economic opportunities, policy frameworks, and individual aspirations.

Canada’s challenge lies in converting this knowledge into effective retention strategies, closing gaps in labor market integration, and ensuring that both Canadian-born and foreign-born skilled workers see a long-term future within the country.

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