📊 What Happened in Q4 2026
First quarterly population decline since the 2009 financial crisis.
International students made up the largest group leaving Canada.
Government caps and new requirements are reducing temporary resident numbers.
Fewer people means less competition for housing and jobs.
🎯 Why This is Happening
The government introduced major changes to immigration in 2024 and 2025. These policies are now showing real results.Canada wants to reduce temporary residents from 6.5% to 5% of the population by 2027. The Q4 2026 decline shows this plan is on track. The goal is to ease pressure on housing, healthcare, and jobs while maintaining strong permanent immigration.
🇮🇳 What This Means for Your Immigration Plans
🚨 The opportunity window is opening wider:
Competition
PR chances
Fewer temporary residents means less competition in Express Entry. CRS scores should stay stable or even drop slightly in 2026.
While competition decreases, the government is being pickier about who gets permanent residence. You need stronger credentials than before.
Fewer people competing for housing means better availability and potentially lower rents. This helps newcomers settle more easily.
With fewer temporary workers, there are more job opportunities for permanent residents and citizens. This especially helps in entry-level positions.
📈 How This Affects Express Entry in 2026
The population decline directly impacts Express Entry. Here is what we expect to see:In early 2025, Express Entry draws were seeing CRS cutoffs around 540-560. By late 2025, they dropped to 480-520. With fewer temporary residents in the pool, we expect 2026 cutoffs to remain in the 480-510 range for most draws.
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