Canada's population saw a significant decrease in the fourth quarter of 2025. As of January 1, 2026, the population stood at 41,472,081, reflecting a decline of 103,504 people, or 0.2%, from October 1, 2025. These figures, though preliminary, shed light on a continuing trend of slowed population growth.
This decline in population largely resulted from a decrease in non-permanent residents. All provinces, as well as Yukon, experienced a drop in their numbers during this period. Additionally, permanent immigration levels in the last quarter of 2025 contributed to the slowed demographic growth, though they did not fully offset the overall population decline.
What Exactly Changed?
The fourth quarter of 2025 ended with Canada's population at 41,472,081 on January 1, 2026, marking a decrease of 0.2% from the previous quarter. This decline was particularly due to a sharp drop in the number of non-permanent residents, which fell by 171,296. Such a reduction was primarily noted among students and workers on temporary permits.
Permanent immigration also slowed, with Canada admitting 83,168 new permanent residents in the last quarter of 2025. This was a 19.6% drop compared to the same period in 2024 when 103,438 immigrants were welcomed. Despite these figures aligning with IRCC's targets, the reduced immigration numbers further contributed to the overall population decrease.
Natural increase also factored into the decline, as deaths outnumbered births by 781 in the same quarter. As a result, even though immigration numbers provided some offset, they were insufficient to reverse the population decline.
Who Is Affected?
Non-permanent residents: The reduction in population predominantly affected non-permanent residents. From October 2025 to January 2026, all provinces saw a decrease in these residents, driven by fewer international students and temporary workers remaining in Canada.
Provinces with population decreases: British Columbia recorded the highest quarterly population decrease at 0.4%, while Quebec, Ontario, and Prince Edward Island each saw decreases of 0.3%. Alberta, in contrast, experienced a slight growth of 0.1% due to net gains from interprovincial migration.
New immigrants: Although Canada admitted fewer permanent immigrants than in previous years, the influx was still positive, particularly impacting where newcomers chose to settle. Ontario was the leading destination, welcoming 42.3% of all new immigrants in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Background and Context
Canada's demographic trends have experienced a shift, heavily influenced by changes in global migration patterns and domestic immigration policies. The decrease in non-permanent residents is partially attributed to changes that led to a reduced number of new study and work permits. This trend may change with the updates in permit extensions anticipated in the coming months.
Furthermore, the slowing of permanent immigration aligns with IRCC's strategic targets for 2025, which aimed to manage the flow of new immigrants while considering domestic capacity and integration challenges. These measures were intended to balance the benefits of immigration with the needs of Canada’s economic sectors and social services.
The Canadian population has also been reflecting broader global trends of reduced birth rates and increased life expectancy, contributing further to the complex dynamics of demographic changes. Historical comparisons highlight how 2025's growth rates were significantly lower than in previous years, further emphasizing these shifts.
What Stays the Same?
Despite these changes, some aspects of Canada's demographic estimates remain consistent. Statistics Canada continues to release preliminary demographic data approximately three months after the reference date. These estimates rely on timely administrative data combined with statistical models.
The procedure for calculating these estimates has been standard for decades, using a blend of census data, adjusted for undercoverage, and other demographic factors. These established processes ensure that while preliminary numbers may fluctuate, the overall methodology remains unchanged.
Additionally, Alberta continues as a strong destination for interprovincial migrants, maintaining its status as a favorable option for Canadians relocating within the country. Even with fewer overall gains than previously recorded years, Alberta’s positive net migratory exchange highlights its ongoing appeal.
The demographic estimates released are preliminary and subject to change. Updated estimates will incorporate recent data on work and study permit extensions, potentially altering the current population figures.
Frequently Asked Questions
Exploring Population Decrease Factors
The decline in Canada's population during the last quarter of 2025 reflects deeper demographic trends. A significant factor was the decrease in non-permanent residents holding either study or work permits. This segment traditionally includes international students, temporary workers, and their families, who contribute to Canada’s demographic and economic vibrancy.
The decline in these residents was significant, dropping from a peak of over 3 million in late 2024 to under 2.7 million by early 2026. Studies reveal that such decreases are often linked to global economic conditions, changing immigration policies, and post-pandemic adjustments. For instance, changes in international study visa policies or challenges faced by foreign workers could influence these numbers dramatically.
Without the influx of non-permanent residents, sectors like education and certain industries reliant on seasonal or specialized workers may face resource shortages. Addressing these declines might involve reevaluating visa renewal processes, enhancing support systems for temporary residents, or developing policies to stabilize non-permanent resident numbers during uncertain times.
Analyzing Provincial Shifts
Regional disparities in demographic changes highlight specific economic and migratory trends. British Columbia, for instance, showed a 0.4% population decline. This reduction might reflect the province's high living costs, which could discourage both new residents and those considering staying long-term.
Quebec, Ontario, and Prince Edward Island each experienced a 0.3% decline in population. Such decreases could be tied to both interprovincial migration trends and broader economic shifts, possibly influenced by fluctuating job markets or lifestyle preferences post-pandemic. The outflow to other provinces, notably Alberta, demonstrates persistent pursuit of economic opportunities and affordable living conditions that buoy Alberta's growth.
In contrast, Alberta gained a marginal 0.1% in its population due to interprovincial migrants. The province's appeal ties back to its robust economy, relatively affordable housing, and diverse employment opportunities, particularly in the energy and technology sectors. These factors consistently make Alberta an attractive destination for people relocating within Canada.
Policy Shifts and Forward Projections
The dynamics of immigration and population growth in Canada are strongly influenced by policy changes. Recent measures announced in Quebec aimed at supporting local workers and employers highlight strategic interventions to balance the workforce dynamics. Such policies could augment future demographic estimates, particularly if they lead to an increase in permits for skilled workers.
The introduction of extensions for work and study permits serves as a critical response to maintaining economic stability and addressing workforce shortages. Should updates show increased uptake in these permits, preliminary population decreases could be revised upwards, reflecting a more balanced demographic outlook.
Moreover, with Canada’s ongoing commitment to immigration as a key driver of economic growth, strategic adjustments in policy are likely. Future projections need to consider the potential for both increased immigrant inflows and more stable non-permanent residency numbers. Recognizing and adapting to these changes will be crucial for policymakers aiming to stabilize and grow Canada’s population.
Insights into Immigration and Economic Impacts
While immigration remains a cornerstone of Canada’s demographic policy, the shift in patterns and numbers during 2025 illustrates the complexity of managing population growth. The decline in new permanent residents by nearly 20% compared to the previous year underscores challenges related to global uncertainties and shifting migration policies worldwide.
Economically, immigration drives growth by filling labor shortages, spurring entrepreneurial activities, and enriching cultural diversity. However, reduced immigration in the final quarter of 2025 hints at broader systemic concerns that need addressing—like international diplomacy, recruitment incentives, and integration strategies.
Furthermore, with more deaths than births recorded in the same timeframe, the natural increase has become a lesser contributor to Canada’s population growth. This dynamic propels the need for stronger immigration approaches to sustain economic vitality and counterbalance demographic shifts.
Frequently Asked Questions
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