Canada’s International Student Population Drops Sharply After Years of Growth
Canada has long been a top destination for international students. But new data from Statistics Canada, released on May 5, 2026, reveals a dramatic shift in the landscape. According to the study “Estimating the international student population in Canada using administrative data: A feasibility study, 2025/2026,” the number of full-time international students in public postsecondary institutions has fallen by nearly one-third over the last two academic years.
- 01Canada’s International Student Population Drops Sharply After Years of Growth
- 02A Steep Two-Year Decline
- 03Colleges Hit Harder Than Universities
- 04Declines at All University Levels
- 05Ontario Leads the Decline
- 06New Cohorts Hit the Hardest
- 07Why Is This Happening? The Policy Context
- 08About the Study: Methodology and Limitations
- 09Frequently Asked Questions
- 10Breaking Down the Numbers: A Deeper Look at the Decline
- 11University-Level Breakdown: Bachelor's, Master's, and Doctorate
- 12Regional Disparities: Why Ontario Is Hit Hardest
- 13New Cohorts: The Future of International Education in Canada
- 14Policy Impact: The IRCC Study Permit Caps
- 15Frequently Asked Questions
From the 2003/2004 to 2023/2024 academic years, the number of full-time international students grew eightfold. But that trend has reversed. By 2025/2026, the total number of full-time international students in public colleges and universities is estimated to have dropped to roughly 300,000 — a level seen in the second year of the COVID-19 pandemic (2021/2022).
These preliminary estimates fill a gap while official data from Statistics Canada’s Postsecondary Student Information System (PSIS) are not yet available for the 2024/2025 and 2025/2026 academic years. The findings offer a first look at how policy changes and shifting trends are reshaping the international education sector in Canada.
A Steep Two-Year Decline
According to the new estimates, the number of full-time international students in public postsecondary institutions decreased by 4% in 2024/2025 and by 26% in 2025/2026. This brought the total down from about 424,000 in 2023/2024 to roughly 300,000 in 2025/2026 — a drop of 124,000 students, or 29%.
| Academic Year | % Change from Previous Year | Estimated Total International Students |
|---|---|---|
| 2023/2024 (last official PSIS data) | — | ~424,000 |
| 2024/2025 (preliminary estimate) | -4% | ~407,000 |
| 2025/2026 (preliminary estimate) | -26% | ~300,000 |
This drop brings the international student population back to a level similar to what Canada saw in 2021/2022, the second academic year of the pandemic.
Colleges Hit Harder Than Universities
The decline has not been equal across all types of institutions. College programs experienced a moderate drop of 3% in 2024/2025, followed by a sharp 40% decline in 2025/2026. Over the full two-year period from 2023/2024 to 2025/2026, the decline in college programs reached 42%. This has brought the number of international students in colleges below the level recorded in 2021/2022.
University programs saw a smaller decline of 17% from 2023/2024 to 2025/2026 — about half the rate of colleges. However, the number of international students in universities still fell below the level observed in 2019/2020.
| Institution Type | Change 2024/2025 | Change 2025/2026 | Total Change 2023/2024 to 2025/2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| College Programs | -3% | -40% | -42% |
| University Programs | Not specified separately | Not specified separately | -17% |
Declines at All University Levels
The drop in international students affected every level of university study. From 2023/2024 to 2025/2026, the estimated decline was 18% at both the bachelor’s and master’s levels. Doctoral programs saw a smaller decline of 11%.
This is a major reversal after steady growth from 2020/2021 to 2023/2024 across all university levels.
| University Level | Estimated Decline 2023/2024 to 2025/2026 |
|---|---|
| Bachelor’s | -18% |
| Master’s | -18% |
| Doctorate | -11% |
Ontario Leads the Decline
Regionally, Ontario is projected to experience the largest absolute decline. In 2024/2025, Ontario lost roughly 15,000 international students (-6%), followed by a staggering drop of 92,000 in 2025/2026 (-36%) compared with 2023/2024.
In 2023/2024, Ontario was home to 60% of all international students in Canada — a share far above its demographic weight of 39%. By 2025/2026, that share had fallen to 54%.
In the rest of Canada, the declines from 2023/2024 to 2025/2026 were smaller but still significant:
| Region | Estimated Decline 2023/2024 to 2025/2026 | Share of International Students (2025/2026) | Demographic Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlantic provinces | -26% | 6% | 6% |
| Quebec | -14% | 15% | 22% |
| Prairie provinces | -17% | 13% | 19% |
| British Columbia | -24% | 12% | 14% |
In 2025/2026, the share of international students in Quebec, British Columbia, and the Prairies was estimated to be lower than their demographic weight. The Atlantic provinces reached a level equal to their demographic weight at 6%.
New Cohorts Hit the Hardest
The biggest impact is being felt by new cohorts of international students — those just starting their academic journey. In colleges, the loss of new students is estimated at 102,188 compared with 2023/2024, a decline of 75%. In universities, the drop in new cohorts is 36,740, or 46% fewer than in 2023/2024.
As a result, the size of new cohorts starting in 2025/2026 is now similar to what was seen in 2020/2021 for colleges, and 2013/2014 for universities — a remarkable return to levels last seen over a decade ago.
| Cohort Type | Estimated Loss of New Students (vs 2023/2024) | Percentage Decline | Comparable to Cohort Size In |
|---|---|---|---|
| College | 102,188 | -75% | 2020/2021 |
| University | 36,740 | -46% | 2013/2014 |
Why Is This Happening? The Policy Context
The Statistics Canada report notes that in 2024, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) announced its intention to decrease the number of temporary residents. This measure aimed to reduce the number of new study permits issued by 35% in 2024 relative to 2023, followed by an additional 10% in 2025. New provincial and territorial caps based on population figures were also put in place.
PSIS data do not yet capture the impact of these measures. But these preliminary estimates based on administrative data suggest the policy changes are having a strong effect — particularly on new cohorts and college programs.
About the Study: Methodology and Limitations
This feasibility study produced preliminary estimates for the 2024/2025 and 2025/2026 academic years. It focuses on full-time international students enrolled in study programs of more than one year at public postsecondary institutions. It excludes private institutions and part-time students.
Unlike study permit data that measure authorizations to study, these estimates reflect students actually or potentially enrolled. The analysis uses a longitudinal approach by study cohort for academic years 2011/2012 to 2025/2026, with estimates based on historical persistence rates. For recent cohorts, the initial number of study permit holders from IRCC is adjusted to account for coverage and conceptual differences between enrolled students and permit holders.
The estimates are broken down by gender, region, institution type, and level of study. However, the study stresses that these are preliminary estimates and will be revised as new data become available.
Frequently Asked Questions
Breaking Down the Numbers: A Deeper Look at the Decline
To fully understand the scale of the decline, it helps to look at the year-over-year shifts in context. Between 2003/2004 and 2023/2024, the number of full-time international students in Canada grew eightfold. That long-term growth made Canada one of the world's most popular destinations for international study, particularly at the college and undergraduate levels.
But the data for the last two academic years tells a very different story. The 4% decline in 2024/2025 was the first major drop in two decades. It accelerated sharply to 26% in 2025/2026. Over the two-year period, the cumulative drop of 29% represents more than 120,000 students who would have been studying in Canada had the previous trends continued.
For colleges, the pattern was more extreme. After a moderate 3% decline in 2024/2025, colleges saw a 40% decline in 2025/2026. That brought the total college decline to 42% over two years. The impact on college campuses across the country has been immediate and severe, particularly in regions that had heavily recruited international students for diploma and certificate programs.
Universities saw a more moderate but still significant 17% decline over the same period. However, the fact that university numbers dropped below 2019/2020 levels is notable. That year marked the pre-pandemic peak for many programs, suggesting that even the relatively smaller decline at universities has erased several years of growth.
University-Level Breakdown: Bachelor's, Master's, and Doctorate
Looking at the data by level of university study provides further insight. From 2020/2021 to 2023/2024, international student numbers grew steadily across all levels. But the reversal has been sharp.
At the bachelor's level, which accounts for the largest share of international undergraduates, enrolments dropped 18% from 2023/2024 to 2025/2026. This means tens of thousands fewer international students are pursuing undergraduate degrees in Canada compared to just two years ago.
Master's programs saw an identical 18% decline. These programs are often seen as a pathway to Canadian permanent residence through the Post-Graduation Work Permit Program and Express Entry. The drop in master's enrolments could have long-term implications for Canada's skilled labour pipeline.
Doctoral programs saw a smaller 11% decline. This may reflect the longer-term nature of PhD commitments, as well as the fact that doctoral students are often funded through research grants and teaching assistantships, making them less sensitive to policy changes around study permits.
Regional Disparities: Why Ontario Is Hit Hardest
Ontario's outsized share of international students made it particularly vulnerable to the decline. In 2023/2024, Ontario was home to 60% of all international students in Canada, despite having only 39% of Canada's population. By 2025/2026, Ontario's share had fallen to 54%.
The absolute numbers are stark. Ontario lost an estimated 15,000 students in 2024/2025 and another 92,000 in 2025/2026. That is a total loss of 107,000 international students in just two years. For context, that is more than the entire international student population of many smaller provinces.
Why Ontario? The province has a high concentration of colleges and universities that aggressively recruited international students, particularly in the Greater Toronto Area. When the federal government introduced study permit caps, Ontario's large share of the national cap made it a target for reductions. Additionally, many of Ontario's college programs popular among international students — such as business, IT, and hospitality — may have been disproportionately affected by the new policies.
In contrast, Quebec saw a 14% decline — the smallest among all regions. Quebec's separate immigration system and lower reliance on international student tuition may have cushioned the impact. However, Quebec still ended up with a lower share of international students (15%) than its demographic weight (22%), suggesting it was already under-represented before the decline.
British Columbia saw a 24% decline, while the Prairie provinces dropped 17%. The Atlantic provinces saw the largest percentage decline among the smaller regions at 26%, but their absolute numbers are smaller. By 2025/2026, the Atlantic provinces' share of international students matched their demographic weight at 6% — a rare point of balance in a national picture of regional disparity.
New Cohorts: The Future of International Education in Canada
Perhaps the most striking finding from the Statistics Canada report is the impact on new cohorts of international students. These are students who would have been starting their studies in the fall of 2024 or 2025. The data suggests that the pipeline of new international students has been severely disrupted.
In colleges, the loss of new students is estimated at 102,188, a 75% decline from the 2023/2024 new cohort. This means that for every four new international students who started college in 2023/2024, only one started in 2025/2026. The size of the 2025/2026 college cohort is now similar to what it was in 2020/2021, during the height of the pandemic.
Universities saw a 46% decline in new cohorts, with an estimated loss of 36,740 students. The 2025/2026 university new cohort is now comparable in size to the 2013/2014 cohort — a level not seen in over a decade.
This collapse in new enrolments has immediate financial implications for institutions. International students typically pay significantly higher tuition than domestic students. The loss of these students means lost revenue for colleges and universities, which may translate into program cuts, faculty layoffs, or reduced services for all students.
The long-term implications are also significant. International students often become permanent residents after graduation, contributing to Canada's labour force and economy. A smaller cohort of new international students today means fewer skilled workers in the pipeline for tomorrow.
Policy Impact: The IRCC Study Permit Caps
The Statistics Canada study was conducted in response to the need for timely data on the impact of new immigration policies. In 2024, IRCC announced that it would reduce the number of new study permits issued by 35% in 2024 compared to 2023, followed by an additional 10% reduction in 2025. The government also introduced provincial and territorial caps based on population figures.
These measures were part of a broader strategy to manage the number of temporary residents in Canada. The government cited concerns about housing affordability, infrastructure strain, and the integrity of the immigration system as reasons for the policy change.
The preliminary estimates suggest these policies are having a significant effect — particularly on college enrolments and new cohorts. However, the study notes that PSIS data do not yet capture the full impact. These estimates will be revised as more data becomes available.
The study methodology uses a longitudinal approach by study cohort from 2011/2012 to 2025/2026. It adjusts IRCC study permit data to account for differences between permit holders and actual enrolled students. This provides a more accurate picture of the student population than raw permit data alone.
Frequently Asked Questions
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