Budget 2025 includes a new one-time $150 Canada Disability Benefit (CDB) supplemental payment to help cover the costs of Disability Tax Credit (DTC) certifications, and the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) now estimates this measure will cost $133 million over five years.
What Budget 2025 changes for CDB and DTC
Budget 2025 proposes a one-time $150 supplemental CDB payment for every DTC certification or re‑certification that results in a person qualifying for a Canada Disability Benefit entitlement. The top-up is meant to help offset medical and administrative costs associated with securing the DTC, which is a key gateway to the CDB. Beneficiaries will be retroactively eligible back to the June 2025 launch of the CDB program, with the first supplemental payments expected to reach CDB recipients before the end of 2026-27.
PBO’s 5‑year fiscal impact: $133 million
In a December 11, 2025 report, PBO analyst Matt Dong estimates that the DTC‑linked supplemental payments will cost $133 million between 2025‑26 and 2029‑30 on an accrual basis, as they would appear in the federal budget and public accounts. The projected annual profile is:
- 2025‑26: $0 million
- 2026‑27: $97 million
- 2027‑28: $11 million
- 2028‑29: $12 million
- 2029‑30: $13 million
- Total: $133 million
The large spike in 2026‑27 reflects retroactive payments to everyone who has become CDB‑eligible since the program’s start, with smaller ongoing costs as new DTC certifications and re‑certifications occur in later years.
How the estimate was built
To estimate costs, the PBO used its internal CDB model alongside Statistics Canada’s Social Policy Simulation Database/Model (SPSD/M) to forecast the number of CDB recipients over time. Historical data on working‑age DTC certificate holders, growth rates, durations and expiries came from Canada Revenue Agency DTC statistics and a specific information request (IR0769).
- All individuals eligible for CDB from the program’s launch in June 2025 are assumed to receive their first $150 supplemental payment in 2026‑27, aligning with Budget 2025 timing.
- In subsequent years, costs are driven by the net change in CDB beneficiaries, accounting for both new entrants and those leaving the program.
Positive numbers in the estimate represent higher spending that worsens the budget balance, and totals may not add exactly due to rounding.
Uncertainties and potential impact on take-up
The PBO flags several uncertainties that could affect the final cost:
- CDB take-up could be higher or lower than assumed as the program matures.
- The population of DTC certificate holders might evolve differently from historical trends.
- Crucially, the analysis does not factor in behavioural responses: the $150 supplement could encourage more people to apply for or renew DTC certification, leading to higher CDB participation and higher overall costs.
Advocacy organizations have long argued that the DTC is underused because of complexity and certification costs, so even a modest per‑certificate payment could help reduce barriers and modestly boost access to the new Canada Disability Benefit.
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