A Record-Setting Quarter for Canada's Refugee System
Canada’s Refugee Protection Division (RPD) has released its Q1 2025 statistics on claims by country of alleged persecution—and the numbers are staggering.
With over 29,000 new claims referred between January and March 2025 and more than 280,000 claims still pending, this report provides a country-by-country snapshot of global human displacement, political unrest, and migration patterns seen through the lens of Canadian asylum.
These statistics reflect only cases referred on or after December 15, 2012, and include claims returned for redetermination but exclude vacate/cease applications or pre-2012 referrals.
Historical Context: Canada's Role in Global Refugee Protection
Canada has long held a reputation as a safe haven for refugees. From its Private Sponsorship of Refugees (PSR) Program, which began in 1979, to the Syrian resettlement wave in 2015–2016, Canada’s refugee system has evolved with changing international crises.
The RPD, a division of the Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada (IRB), assesses whether claimants are Convention refugees or persons in need of protection. This involves analyzing alleged persecution by state or non-state actors in their home countries.
How to Read the 2025 RPD Table
- Referred: New claims received by the RPD in Q1 2025
- Finalized: Cases concluded during this period (either accepted, rejected, abandoned, or withdrawn)
- Pending: Cases still awaiting decision as of March 31, 2025
- Accepted vs. Rejected: Whether refugee protection was granted
- Country: The first country listed by the claimant upon filing, as recorded by CBSA or IRCC
Disclaimer: Country names reflect the IRB case system input and are not political endorsements or geopolitical recognitions.
Top 15 Source Countries by Claim Volume – Q1 2025
Here’s a snapshot of the countries with the highest total claim volumes, sorted by pending cases:
| 🇨🇦 Country of Alleged Persecution | Referred | Accepted | Rejected | Abandoned | Withdrawn/Other | Finalized Total | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | 5,662 | 493 | 532 | 1,820 | 255 | 3,100 | 39,720 |
| Haiti | 2,187 | 684 | 338 | 76 | 35 | 1,133 | 22,762 |
| Nigeria | 1,955 | 769 | 317 | — | — | 1,135 | 20,693 |
| Bangladesh | 1,346 | 290 | 128 | 52 | 77 | 547 | 19,385 |
| Mexico | 1,495 | 886 | 538 | 465 | 356 | 2,245 | 25,549 |
| Iran | 1,906 | 817 | — | — | 52 | 881 | 9,049 |
| Colombia | 707 | 634 | 216 | — | — | 968 | 9,689 |
| Ghana | 810 | 247 | 75 | — | — | 356 | 8,893 |
| Sri Lanka | 1,068 | 167 | — | — | 96 | 297 | 12,226 |
| Kenya | 158 | 331 | 62 | — | — | 410 | 4,956 |
| Afghanistan | 122 | 497 | — | — | — | 504 | 2,130 |
| Cameroon | 369 | 175 | 39 | — | — | 228 | 3,369 |
| Ethiopia | 220 | 329 | — | — | — | 341 | 2,732 |
| Lebanon | 252 | 69 | — | — | 40 | 125 | 2,674 |
| Türkiye | 499 | 1,208 | — | 72 | — | 1,348 | 6,577 |
Total Pending Claims (All Countries): 280,825
Total Finalized Claims (Q1): 20,674
Emerging Hotspots: Countries with Spiking Referrals
These countries are showing fast-growing numbers of new claims—often reflecting escalating internal crises:
- India: Over 5,600 new referrals in just 3 months
- Bangladesh: 1,300+ new claims, likely linked to political violence and ethnic tensions
- Iran: Nearly 2,000 referrals amid continuing regime suppression
- Afghanistan: A surge in post-Taliban regime escape attempts
- Haiti: Spike due to violent unrest, gang control, and government collapse
Shocking Trends in RPD Data – 2025 Insights
🔹 India Leads in Volume, but Not in Acceptance
Despite having the most claims referred and pending, India’s acceptance rate remains low—a possible reflection of RPD’s skepticism toward persecution-based claims from the world’s largest democracy.
🔹 Haiti's Humanitarian Breakdown
With nearly 23,000 pending claims, Haiti is second only to India, indicating a dramatic breakdown of civil order and economic systems, compounded by natural disasters and gang violence.
🔹 High Acceptance from Türkiye, Iran, and Colombia
- Türkiye: A surprisingly high acceptance rate (~90%) among finalized cases.
- Iran: Reflects systemic persecution of minorities, political dissidents, and women.
- Colombia: Acceptance is high due to documented threats from armed groups.
Refugee Determination: What Happens After a Claim Is Made?
Once a refugee claim is referred:
- The RPD schedules a hearing (typically within 60 days).
- Claimants present evidence of persecution based on race, religion, political opinion, nationality, or group membership.
- A member (judge) determines if the claimant qualifies under the 1951 UN Refugee Convention or needs protection under Canada’s IRPA Sections 96 and 97.
- Approved claimants receive protected person status and may later apply for PR.
Challenges in the System: What’s Straining Canada’s Refugee Determination Framework?
Canada’s refugee system is one of the most robust and generous in the world. However, the latest Q1 2025 IRB data reveals deep structural and operational challenges that are increasingly difficult to ignore. From administrative backlogs to legal ambiguities, these systemic pressures threaten to overwhelm the Refugee Protection Division (RPD) and delay justice for genuine asylum seekers.
1. Backlog Pressure: Over 280,000 Pending Claims and Counting
The sheer volume of pending cases—280,825 as of March 31, 2025—is not just an administrative concern. It represents a humanitarian bottleneck that directly impacts claimants’ lives.
⚙️ Operational Impacts:
- Hearing delays: Many claimants wait 12–24 months for hearings, undermining the RPD’s mandate to provide timely protection.
- Resource strain: The IRB requires additional funding and personnel to process this volume; failure to scale appropriately results in burnout and systemic delay.
- Legal uncertainty: Long waits leave claimants in legal limbo, unable to work or access certain services, which can compound trauma and increase vulnerability.
Real-World Consequences:
- Children grow up without permanent status.
- Families face prolonged separation.
- Employers and communities cannot integrate skilled refugees efficiently.
Unless measures such as fast-track triaging, AI-assisted file processing, or remote hearings are expanded, the backlog could hit 300,000+ by mid-2025.
2. Abandonment and Withdrawal: When Hope Fades or Rules Bar Entry
Over 4,800 cases in Q1 2025 were finalized due to abandonment, withdrawal, or “other” closures. These outcomes reveal the soft failures of the refugee system—cases that never reach a proper determination.
❓ Why Do Cases Get Abandoned or Withdrawn?
- Lack of Legal Representation: Many claimants lack access to immigration lawyers or community legal aid, which dramatically reduces their chances of navigating hearings successfully.
- Missed Hearings: Failure to appear—even due to administrative errors, illness, or misunderstanding—often results in automatic abandonment.
- Ineligibility on Arrival: Some claimants realize post-entry that their claims are inadmissible or unfounded under Canadian law.
- Voluntary Return: In some cases, individuals withdraw applications to return to their country of origin or move to another jurisdiction.
The Bigger Picture:
While some withdrawals are legitimate, others signal systemic weaknesses such as:
- Inadequate legal aid access
- Poor communication from immigration officers
- Confusing documentation requirements
- Psychological stress or mental health deterioration leading to disengagement
Addressing these challenges requires early legal triage, language-accessible instructions, and mental health supports for vulnerable claimants.
3. Complex Geopolitical Data: When Maps and Reality Don’t Match
The country listed in a refugee claim may appear straightforward, but in practice, it's often a legal and political minefield.
🌐 Why This Is Problematic:
- State legitimacy disputes: Claimants from unrecognized or disputed territories (e.g., Palestine, Western Sahara, Taiwan) may face added scrutiny or complications due to lack of formal state status.
- Country name inconsistencies: The IRB’s case management system uses static country designations that may not reflect real-time geopolitical developments.
- Multi-jurisdictional claims: Some claimants flee from one country but pass through or reside temporarily in others, raising questions of first-country-of-asylum or safe third-country eligibility.
- Internal vs. External Persecution: In countries with de facto internal conflict zones (e.g., Sudan, Myanmar, DR Congo), persecution may not be uniformly state-sponsored, complicating legal arguments.
Legal Implications:
- Inconsistent country data can make or break a claim if it affects the burden of proof, documentation, or refugee convention grounds.
- Claims from stateless individuals, such as ethnic Rohingya, Kurds, or Roma, face added legal barriers without recognized nationality.
Key Challenge Summary Table
| Challenge | Description | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Massive Backlog | 280,000+ claims pending | Slowed protection decisions, legal limbo |
| Abandoned/Withdrawn Cases | 4,800+ unresolved | Legal aid gaps, system attrition |
| Geopolitical Ambiguity | Static country data, sovereignty disputes | Legal uncertainty, increased rejections |
Key Takeaways
| Insight | Data |
|---|---|
| Highest Referrals | India (5,662) |
| Highest Acceptance Volume | Türkiye (1,208) |
| Largest Pending Caseload | India (39,720) |
| Total Claims Referred | 29,475 (Q1 2025) |
| Total Claims Pending | 280,825 |
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