New data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) shows a dramatic decline in asylum claims – with 36% fewer people submitting a claim in January 2026 compared to January 2025.
- 01National Trends: Claims at a 3-Year Low
- 02Claims by Province: Quebec and Ontario Lead Declines
- 03Border Crossings: RCMP Apprehensions Drop Sharply
- 04TRV Holder Claims Cut in Half
- 05What Measures Has Canada Implemented?
- 06How Canada's Asylum System Works
- 07Frequently Asked Questions
- 08Official Sources
- 09Bottom Line
This marks the lowest monthly total since April 2023, signaling that Canada's recent border integrity measures are having a significant impact.
Key January 2026 vs. January 2025 comparisons:
| Metric | January 2025 | January 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total asylum claimants | 10,295 | 6,595 | ↓ 36% |
| Claims from TRV holders | 3,885 | 1,930 | ↓ 50% |
| RCMP apprehensions (between POEs) | 122 | 70 | ↓ 43% |
The biggest success: Asylum claims from Mexican citizens at airports fell by 97% between February and March 2024 – a decline that has been sustained.
National Trends: Claims at a 3-Year Low
The total number of people submitting asylum claims in Canada has been on a general downward trend since mid-2024, with January 2026 hitting a low of 6,595 claimants.
Monthly Asylum Claimants (Select Months)
| Month | Total Claimants |
|---|---|
| October 2023 (peak) | 16,310 |
| January 2024 | 14,685 |
| January 2025 | 10,295 |
| January 2026 | 6,595 |
Historical context: The peak in October 2023 (16,310 claimants) was more than double the January 2026 figure. The decline has been steady but not uniform – summer months typically see higher volumes, but the overall trend is clearly downward.
What's Driving the Decline?
Canada has implemented multiple measures that together have reduced asylum flows:
- Visa restrictions for Mexican citizens (February 2024)
- Heightened scrutiny of TRV applications globally
- Border measures reducing crossings between ports of entry
- Information sharing agreements with partner countries
- Temporary resident caps reducing overall migration volumes
Claims by Province: Quebec and Ontario Lead Declines
Quebec and Ontario have historically received the vast majority of asylum claims. January 2026 data shows both provinces saw significant declines.
January 2026 Claims by Province
| Province | January 2026 | January 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quebec | 1,995 | 3,040 | ↓ 34% |
| Ontario | 3,090 | 5,200 | ↓ 41% |
| British Columbia | 780 | 1,080 | ↓ 28% |
| Alberta | 500 | 685 | ↓ 27% |
| Manitoba | 95 | 180 | ↓ 47% |
| Nova Scotia | 35 | 25 | ↑ 40% |
| New Brunswick | 35 | 25 | ↑ 40% |
| Saskatchewan | 45 | 50 | ↓ 10% |
Key observations:
- Ontario saw the largest absolute drop (down 2,110 claims)
- Quebec saw the second largest drop (down 1,045 claims)
- Manitoba had the highest percentage drop among major provinces (down 47%)
- Nova Scotia and New Brunswick saw small increases, but from very low bases
Historical Peak vs. January 2026
| Province | Peak Month (2023-2024) | January 2026 | Reduction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quebec | 6,945 (Jan 2023) | 1,995 | ↓ 71% |
| Ontario | 8,660 (May 2024) | 3,090 | ↓ 64% |
| British Columbia | 1,290 (Dec 2024) | 780 | ↓ 40% |
Border Crossings: RCMP Apprehensions Drop Sharply
One of the most dramatic declines has been in irregular crossings between ports of entry – people who cross the border at non-official points and are apprehended by the RCMP.
RCMP Apprehensions (Between Ports of Entry)
| Month | Total RCMP Apprehensions |
|---|---|
| January 2023 (peak) | 4,994 |
| January 2024 | 191 |
| January 2025 | 122 |
| January 2026 | 70 |
The decline is staggering:
| Period | Average Daily Crossings |
|---|---|
| March 2023 (peak) | 165 claims/day |
| January 2026 | 13 claims/day |
What happened? The sharp drop began in April 2023 after Canada and the U.S. expanded the Safe Third Country Agreement to cover the entire border, not just official ports of entry. This made it much harder for asylum seekers to make claims after irregular crossings.
Monthly RCMP Apprehensions Trend
| Month | Quebec | Manitoba | BC | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2023 | 4,875 | 19 | 104 | 4,994 |
| Jan 2024 | 79 | 16 | 91 | 191 |
| Jan 2025 | 73 | 13 | 36 | 122 |
| Jan 2026 | 59 | 8 | 3 | 70 |
Quebec has historically been the main entry point for irregular crossings, and it has seen the largest absolute decline – from nearly 5,000 in January 2023 to just 59 in January 2026.
TRV Holder Claims Cut in Half
One of the most significant achievements highlighted by IRCC is the 50% drop in asylum claims from Temporary Resident Visa (TRV) holders.
| Period | Claims from TRV Holders |
|---|---|
| January 2025 | 3,885 |
| January 2026 | 1,930 |
This was the lowest number of claims by TRV holders in any month since April 2023.
Why This Matters
TRV holders – people who enter Canada as visitors, students, or workers – have been a growing source of asylum claims. Heightened scrutiny of TRV applications, including more rigorous assessments of applicants' ties to their home countries, appears to be working.
IRCC statement: "We saw a 50% drop in asylum claims from TRV holders in January 2026 (1,930) compared to January 2025 (3,885). This was also the lowest number of claims by TRV holders in any month since April 2023."
What Measures Has Canada Implemented?
Canada has introduced multiple reforms to strengthen the integrity of its asylum system:
| Measure | Impact |
|---|---|
| Visa re-imposition for Mexican citizens (Feb 2024) | 97% drop in airport claims from Mexico |
| Safe Third Country Agreement expansion (March 2023) | Irregular crossings down from 165/day to 13/day |
| Heightened TRV scrutiny | 50% drop in claims from TRV holders |
| Temporary resident caps | Reduced overall migration volumes |
| Information sharing agreements | Better detection of non-genuine visitors |
The Mexican Visa Story
When Canada re-imposed visa requirements for Mexican citizens in February 2024:
| Metric | Before (Feb 2024) | After (March 2024) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asylum claims by Mexicans at airports | High volume | Near zero | ↓ 97% |
This single measure had an immediate and sustained impact on asylum volumes, particularly at Canadian airports.
How Canada's Asylum System Works
For readers unfamiliar with Canada's refugee determination system, here is a brief overview:
Step 1: Claim Submission
An IRCC or CBSA officer first assesses each claim for eligibility to be referred to the Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada (IRB).
Step 2: Eligibility Determination
Only eligible claims are referred to the IRB for a full hearing.
Step 3: IRB Hearing
Claimants must prove they have a well-founded fear of persecution or face a risk of serious harm (torture, cruel and unusual treatment, or punishment) in their home country.
Step 4: Decision
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| Claim accepted | Becomes a protected person; may apply for permanent residence |
| Claim denied | May be subject to removal from Canada |
Step 5: Permanent Residence (for accepted claimants)
Protected persons can apply for permanent residence under the protected persons in Canada category.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many asylum claims did Canada receive in January 2026?
6,595 people submitted asylum claims in January 2026 – down 36% from January 2025 and the lowest monthly total since April 2023.
Which province receives the most asylum claims?
Ontario received 3,090 claims in January 2026, followed by Quebec with 1,995. Together, these two provinces account for over 77% of all claims.
How many people cross irregularly between ports of entry?
The RCMP apprehended 70 people crossing between ports of entry in January 2026 – down from nearly 5,000 in January 2023.
What happened to Mexican asylum claims?
After Canada re-imposed visa requirements for Mexican citizens in February 2024, asylum claims by Mexicans at airports fell by 97% .
How many claims come from TRV holders?
In January 2026, 1,930 claims came from people who entered Canada on a Temporary Resident Visa – half the number from January 2025.
What is the Safe Third Country Agreement?
An agreement between Canada and the U.S. requiring asylum seekers to make their claim in the first safe country they enter. Expanded in March 2023 to cover the entire border, not just official ports of entry.
Where can I find more detailed data?
IRCC provides detailed monthly reports on asylum claimants on the Open Government Portal, including breakdowns by country of origin and demographic information.
Official Sources
| Resource | Link |
|---|---|
| IRCC asylum statistics | canada.ca (as of January 31, 2026) |
| Open Government Portal | Detailed monthly asylum data |
| Immigration and Refugee Board | IRB claim data by country of origin |
| Immigration Levels Plan | Annual targets 2026-2028 |
Bottom Line
Canada's asylum system is seeing a significant and sustained decline in new claims.
What the data shows:
- ✅ 36% overall drop in claims (January 2026 vs. January 2025)
- ✅ 50% drop in claims from TRV holders
- ✅ 97% drop in Mexican claims after visa re-imposition
- ✅ Irregular crossings down 99% from peak (4,994 to 70)
What this means:
- Canada's border integrity measures are working
- The asylum system is becoming more manageable
- Processing times may improve as volumes decline
- Genuine refugees may be processed faster
What to watch:
- Summer months typically see higher volumes – watch for May-August 2026 data
- Global instability could reverse trends
- Policy changes (e.g., visa requirements for other countries) could shift flows
For potential asylum seekers: Canada remains committed to protecting genuine refugees, but the bar for proving a well-founded fear of persecution is high. Entry pathways have narrowed significantly. Seek legal advice before traveling.
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