Canada's population hit a record 41.3 million as of July 1, 2024, but growth shows signs of slowing. Despite adding 250,229 new residents from April to July, the 0.6% quarterly growth rate marks the first time since 2020 that growth was slower than the previous year. The change reflects a gradual return to pre-pandemic migration levels.
Canada Reaches a Record 41.3 Million Population
As of July 1, 2024, Canada’s population stood at an impressive 41,288,599, a landmark figure in the nation's demographic history. This represents a growth of 250,229 people, or 0.6%, from the previous quarter (April to July 2024). However, while these numbers are impressive, they tell a story of gradual change, as this growth rate is notably slower than the same period in 2023 (+334,606 or 0.8%) and 2022 (+253,510 or 0.7%).
This shift marks the first time since 2020 that quarterly growth has been slower than in the corresponding quarter a year earlier. Back in 2020, population growth was nearly brought to a standstill due to the strict border restrictions imposed during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, despite this slowdown, the current rate still stands higher than any second quarter observed before 2022. This paints a picture of Canada’s resilience and its ability to maintain high levels of population growth even in a post-pandemic world.
International Migration: The Major Driver of Growth
The recent figures reveal that Immigration is the key factor behind Canada’s growth story. In fact, a staggering 96.0% of the population growth in the second quarter of 2024 can be attributed to international migration, accounting for 240,303 individuals. This means that only 4.0% of the growth was due to natural increase—the difference between the number of births and deaths—which added just 9,926 people to the population.
Interestingly, this surge in international migration isn't new for Canada. The country has long been a global destination for those seeking a better life, education, or job opportunities. But the level to which it now drives population growth highlights a shifting dynamic: Canada is increasingly reliant on newcomers to sustain its numbers, a trend that is likely to continue as the fertility rate remains low.
Non-Permanent Residents: A Slower Pace but Still Growing
One of the standout findings in this report is the net increase in non-permanent residents, which stood at 117,836 in the second quarter of 2024. While this is a significant number, it represents the smallest net increase since the first quarter of 2023, indicating a gradual slowing down. The total number of non-permanent residents in Canada now stands at approximately 3 million, but the pace of their growth has been declining since October 2023.
This trend is primarily due to a reduction in the number of study permit holders during the second quarter of 2024. As international education remains a vital component of Canada’s economic and cultural fabric, this slight decrease in the number of study permit holders raises questions about the country’s ability to attract and retain international students in the future.
Record-High Immigration in 2024: A Positive Sign for the Economy
On a more positive note, Canada welcomed 134,138 immigrants in the second quarter of 2024, the highest number since the first quarter of 2023 when 145,496 newcomers arrived. This influx is a testament to Canada's status as a top destination for immigrants, offering a high standard of living, economic opportunities, and a welcoming multicultural environment.
Immigration continues to be a lifeline for Canada’s economy, addressing labor shortages and driving innovation. With an aging population and declining birth rates, these new residents help sustain economic growth and ensure that Canada remains competitive on the world stage.
Provincial and Territorial Trends: Alberta Leads the Pack
Among the provinces and territories, Alberta emerged as the fastest-growing province, boasting a 1.0% growth rate in the second quarter of 2024. This marks the fourth consecutive quarter in which Alberta has led the country in population growth. The province experienced high levels of international migration (+31,877), interprovincial migration (+9,654), and a healthy natural increase (+4,669).
Alberta’s robust growth can be attributed to its thriving economy, job opportunities, and relatively affordable cost of living compared to other provinces. Many Canadians, as well as newcomers, are increasingly attracted to Alberta for its dynamic cities, natural beauty, and employment prospects, particularly in sectors such as energy, technology, and healthcare.
In contrast, the Northwest Territories experienced the slowest growth, with an increase of only 0.1%. The region had modest gains from natural increase (+40) and international migration (+170), but these were nearly offset by losses to interprovincial migration (-165). This reflects a broader trend of Canadians moving from smaller, more remote regions to areas with more economic opportunities and amenities.
Canada’s Age Structure: Millennials Continue to Dominate
One of the most interesting findings from the report is that the median age in Canada decreased slightly, from 40.6 years in 2023 to 40.3 years in 2024. This represents a rare departure from the long-term trend of an aging population. The reason? High levels of international migration, which tend to bring younger people into the country.
The millennial generation (born between 1981 and 1996), aged 27 to 43 years as of 2024, remains the largest generation in Canada. Statistics Canada reported that more than 1.1 million people have joined the millennial cohort since 2021, primarily due to international migration. This influx has made the millennial generation 1.4 times larger than it was in 2004, reinforcing its status as the most influential demographic in the country.
However, this youthful boost is expected to be temporary. Canada’s overall population is still aging, with the number of people aged 65 and older increasing by 3.4% (or +262,394 people) from July 1, 2023, to July 1, 2024. This growth is largely due to the aging of the baby boomer generation, a trend that will continue in the coming years.
A Closer Look at Fertility: The Decline Continues
Canada’s fertility rate continues to decline, reaching an all-time low of 1.26 children per woman in 2023. This trend has been ongoing for decades, and the latest figures highlight how it’s becoming an increasingly important factor in the country’s demographic makeup. Low fertility rates mean that natural increase (births minus deaths) will play an even smaller role in population growth, further emphasizing the importance of immigration as a driver of Canada’s future population trends.
Interprovincial Migration: Returning to Pre-Pandemic Levels
The number of people moving between provinces and territories in 2023/2024 totaled 306,756, a figure that is gradually approaching pre-pandemic levels. This is a significant drop from the peak of 348,777 interprovincial migrants seen in 2021/2022, as many Canadians sought new opportunities or moved to less densely populated areas during the pandemic. This shift back to more “normal” migration patterns suggests that Canadians are resettling into post-pandemic life, with many returning to urban centers or economically prosperous regions like Alberta and Ontario.
Men and Women: Moving Closer to Numerical Parity
One fascinating statistic is that the ratio of men to women in Canada is nearing parity. As of July 1, 2024, there were 20,638,255 men and 20,650,344 women, representing a ratio of 99.9 men for every 100 women. This is the closest the male-to-female ratio has been in decades, largely driven by the arrival of non-permanent residents, who are often more likely to be men due to the nature of job opportunities available.
What Does the Future Hold?
Canada’s population is projected to continue growing, albeit at a slower pace, in the coming years. The estimates suggest that those aged 65 and older will remain the fastest-growing demographic group until at least 2073. This will have significant implications for healthcare, pensions, and social services, as the country will need to adapt to an increasingly older population.
Moreover, while international migration is currently driving population growth, it’s crucial for Canada to continue developing policies that attract immigrants, students, and temporary residents. The country's ability to sustain its economy, cultural vibrancy, and global competitiveness will depend on maintaining a steady influx of newcomers.
Key Takeaways
- Canada’s Population Reached 41.3 Million: A significant milestone, with 250,229 new residents added in just three months.
- Growth Driven by International Migration: 96% of the growth in 2024 came from newcomers, emphasizing the importance of Canada’s immigration policies.
- Alberta Leads the Growth: Alberta stands out as the fastest-growing province, attracting people from across Canada and the world.
- Millennials Are Now the Largest Generation: International migration has helped millennials solidify their status as Canada’s largest demographic group.
- The Median Age Slightly Decreased: For the first time in years, the median age dropped to 40.3, thanks to younger immigrants joining the population.
- Population Aging is Inevitable: Despite the influx of younger residents, an aging population remains a challenge that Canada will face in the coming decades.
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